Uso y abuso de las encuestas en la elección presidencial

Abstract

The present work addresses and seeks to clarify what was the role played by polls in the presidential succession in 2012. We want to explain why leading pools companies had failed exercises, for which we do a timely monitoring of results that they were present throughout the electoral process. Through some significant moments of the process, we seek to confront the results for which some have called the “serious” companies, with others that had a less widely in the media, but which were much more accurate and close with what finally expressed voters at the polls. Starting to confront the data that were occurring throughout the process, we try to not only compare them, but understand how and why “serious” companies were reluctant to admit that the election was much more competitive and was much closer to what they were somehow forecasting.