2012

¿regresará el PRI a Los Pinos? Tendencias electorales y alianza partidista

Abstract

The electoral tendencies expressed in the federal intermediate elections from 2009 and in the elections to choose governor from 2006 to 2011 announce a victory of PRI in the presidential election of 2012. Although there are constant factors in the behavior of the electoral recent variables, there are also other factors that promote the uncertainty of the vote, such as the electoral wrong going, the existence of impartial electoral machineries that go from one party to the other, the pro-coalitions politics based on the material benefits that the parties obtain and the calculations of the parties elites. In that stage, the small parties play a fundamental role. In case that simple coalitions were to be formed, without alliance of PRD and of PAN, it is foregone a victory from the PRI presidential candidate and with simple legislative majority of the same PRI; One the other hand with a wide alliance of PRD, of PAN and the smallest parties that follow them, presidential candidate of that coalition could win, but for a narrow margin and it would not also have a legislative real and operative majority.